2010-02-11 22:02:22

Or, what we can learn about marketing from cupcakes.

Living in a household with numerous roommates, food items tend to appear and disappear by the minute. Recently, a tray of cupcakes appeared (thanks, Karma) and I observed them disappear over the next day.

I started noting geometric patterns with which the cupcakes would be consumed.

Color, placement, and little plastic ring style determined their rate of consumption. For example, the red cupcakes went much faster than the purple ones. Also, the cupcakes with no plastic ring went first. I was fascinated with how I could accurately (~85% accuracy) identify the next cupcake to go.

Still, I had far too many variables for a proper study.

Intrigued, I purchased another tray of cupcakes, this time each having the same color. I then carefully noted the order in which they were eaten:

13	14	15	16
12	5	8	9
11	2	3	6
10	1	4	7

Repeating the experiment with bottles of soda, cookies, pens, packages of ramen noodles, "I am loved" pins, and forks, I started to notice that the original cupcake experiment was statistically representative of the overall pattern.

So, expanding on the pattern, I paired high value items (cup cakes) with low value items (packages of ramen noodles), and notices that even when the low value items were placed in high-value positions(1,2,3, and 4), they were still consumed first. Even though when placed side by side, one-by-one, the cupcakes were always taken first.

My studies continue, as I try to derive a function from the movement, such that clients may improve the sales of less popular items, simply by their position on the page.

So, my next step is to set up a study website, perhaps dealing with free cupcakes, to test this theory online, with a much larger sample size.

I may also study if placement can be used to induce a bad decision, such as attempting to acquire an obviously electrified cupcake.

Results to follow.